My market view of the big picture remains the same! The job of down is not finished yet! More and bigger down is coming even though the decent rebound in the afternoon! let's summarize today's meaningful things:
1) NQ/YM already broke last Friday's low, and ES only a bit to go (went to 1343.75 today, last low was 1342). Today's later rebound I judged as a close last low rebound, which often happens! Also, it was due to hitting some support lines! Though, all indices closed negative even with the nice size of the rebound!
2) All currencies downed nicely! and they did not even participate much in the rebound with any meaningful size! and they will down much more based on my TA! AUD and NZD has been still the leading ones for the down, and EUR CHF kind of lagging! but they will catch up with the speed and down quicker! GBP is a bit special, and so we deal with it in a special way --- trade it longer time frame! CAD has been catching up as well, but right here a support zone is under the way, 0.9980-9935, and we will monitor how it will be broken!
3) commodities down nicely! the most worthy to mention is the gold, it finally broke down the long time bounded range! and it will down much more as well! Silver has been even weaker! Other metals HG PL PA downed nicely too and stay in the downtrend!
Oil has been fighting at the broken support 97.4, and it should go down more after the struggle! the related RB rebounded nicer, but will have to go down much more as well! NG is a little special at this time since it had been downed so much and right now is in a major rebound mood.
ZS today made a decisive move, it finally broke down a major support at 1455! and next support is 1400 area! in case of a rebound to backtest, it should be a nice opportunity to add shorts!
Worth note is that GBP has the similar TA as ZS, thus, GBP will do the same thing as ZS did, it will soon break the support at 1.6095 to next level of 1.59 area, and my "final" target will be 1.58-1.57 to see! These 2 are our long range position play and we will hold the major positions and along the way, to cover some at dips and reshort back some at rebounds until seeing bottom!
2012-5-8 Night session:
Currencies as recently did have already started to the new down march! AUD and NZD have already new lowed and are still in nice down trend! EUR and CHF are closing to last low at the time I am writing (11-12pm EST), GBP is ready too! CAD looks likely to have a decisive move as well, but at the support area, we want to take some extra caution here.
I seldom mention JPY is because in my IB trading account JPY futures has too many digits and I hate it! This one's behavior is kind of different from the others, and I think it being manipulated to do carry trade or whatever, and thus often affect the dollar index in different way from the others, and thus together they are being used to control the market major and minor opposite moves! For example, right now all other currencies mentioned here move down against dollar, but JPY is doing an opposite way, it moves up instead! man, there are a lot of manipulations in this market and you gotta be careful and stay alert!!
Based on the night session movement, the new down could happen as soon as tomorrow! though I cannot completely rule out a small chance of some more rebound, my TA based judgement is that more likely it will start the new down sooner rather than later! The market has been more and more volatile, and it can erase the afternoon rebound easily, with even more bears' revenge!
So, our strategy remains the same, ie, mainly short the rebound, and in case of reverse movement,we may do some hedge job occasionally!
My big picture remain untouched! and we will cover in the first target zone, using ES as reference, 1340-1310! Then we will evaluate the situation there!
Using one sentence to summarize today's market action/struggle around the broken neckline in Chinese, it is ---
裤腰带抓的还蛮紧的，不过白花花的大光腚都见到了，想再穿回去也难！
Have fun and happy trading!
补充几句：今天白天和夜盘盘面轻飘飘的，手感很好，means volatility becomes larger, be more careful either side!
Good luck!