After close CSCO ER caused it to drop a big way, broke 17! (So tomorrow I will close its 20p bot before this blog was open). CSCO ER is considered as "official" end of the ER season, and the remaining ERs would not affect the market much anymore. CSCO drop caused futures down decently, though they tried to rebound again when I am writing this, later drop showed the weakness to us.
AAPL has affected NQ behavior a lot recently, but TA suggests AAPL should go to 520 soon! Combining this with CSCO effect, I believe as early as tomorrow, NQ could go down to finish the job of trying to break 2560 support! If so, ES should break 1339 and YM to break 12700. We will see how deep it will shoot into the 1st target zone! Worth mention is that after YM breaks 12700, it opens up a 700 down space til 12000 without any meaningful support! If it goes there, an equivalent size of down will push ES to 1280 area and NQ to 2400 area!
In the currencies side, today they most remained in the downtrend and we did some covering at down and reshorting at rebound job. CAD today decisively broke the support zone as mentioned last night! After kind of rebound/retest, it should drop much more as well! GBP rebounded nicely into our desired resistance zone around 6140 and we reshorted more!
Commodities similarly are still in down trend. Right now we only have ZS as a position trade, waiting to cover around 1400 and reshort any meaningful rebound thereafter.
2012-5-8 Night session:
No much to say, market rebounded somehow due to AUD unemployment news. and back to down again soon after. AUD itself popped and dropped, we filled a part of short preset at 1.0080-1.0100 resistance. Since this pop breached its hourly down trend, and may take a bit time to back to down trend (maybe already? the following quick drop hints weakness!), we may use stop to protect the gain. if this pop cannot hold, AUD will go back to down mode and it is good for bears since it will help to push market down.
Overall, my market view remains the same! Tomorrow we will monitor NQ closely, and hope it will take the responsibility to push down the market by the help of CSCO and AAPL! Once into the 1st target zone, we will cover shorts according to the then-current real-time situation!
For the big picture, both my own TA and common TA suggest the two target zones are effective! The latter include the day chart double head target to 1280 and a smaller descending triangle on hourly chart to the 1st zone and a larger one to the 2nd zone! (refer to my former posts for the definitions of the 2 target zones)
I may mention more FA stuff in future posts and try to be as brief as can.
Note that the volatility picks up, and up down are so easy to go extreme with big size, so both sides need be more cautious.
A funny summary in Chinese---
裤腰带快抓不住了，下半部即将赤裸裸了。。。
Have fun and happy trading!