Today we sold most longs when ES hit 1370 major resistance and shorted, thus net position is short now! We also added short of AUD NZD GBP CAD. EUR did not reach our desired 3080-3100 zone, so we did not add yet...we also monitored commodities, and holding some ZS JUL shorts...specifically worth mention is that for GBP and ZS, we are playing a longer timeframe trade, means that we will hold the short til a real down happens, along the way, we will cover some at down and add some at rebounds until we judge them bottomed. for example, we make the GBP target zone at 1.58-57 for now. ZS we are not sure about the target zone yet, it is still in the top forming stage, but it looks like 1300 area is possible...
2012-5-7 Night session:
AUD downed nicely first! so as NZD! My market view is not changed and this is a shortable rebound! Today only reached 1370 and weakened in the late afternoon, and night session suggests that it could have topped in the 1365-70 area! So, our strategy is this: we will add more shorts in this zone and probably sell all longs. If tomorrow there is one more push up into our desired 1375-85 zone, it would be a big bonus to bears, and we will consider strong short!! If it doesn't go up anymore, we will consider adding more shorts along the way of down at rebounds!
Big Picture: refer to yesterday's post:
http://trading1678member.blogspot.com/2012/05/make-love-with-market-2012-5-7.html
The big picture here is pretty clear to me! Last night ES reached low 1342, which was closing to the 1340 support and thus led to a rebound! plus, it broke the neck line (1353) of the double head pattern on the day chart! My other TA factors also point to a big down! and next down should reach 1340 or break it decisively, thus shooting into the 1st target zone 1340-1310! then we will see how it performs there and decide what to do. My TA-based imagination is: it will up/down btw 1310-1340 for a while, and then to break the 1310 strong support to test the 1300-1280 2nd target zone! Until then, we don't need bother with farther market direction, we will see then and there if it is a bottom or not at all!
I think this is clear enough! saying this much details, actually all these can be summarized in one funny Chinese sentence---
女腚已经出来了，正在裤腰带附近挣扎 。。。
还需要多说吗？够形象的了吧？
have fun and happy trading!
Let me also re-post a part of explanation in Chinese I posted in some other open forums, just for convenience of some Chinese readers:
AUD先跌了。。。我会在1365-70之间再加点空。。。如果之后或明天真的再涨点，最好能到1375-85，那就perfect了，big bonus to bears，我会根据情况大空！ 如果不到，跌中反弹继续加！单以大盘计，我使用ES/NQ/YM的组合，主仓做某方向的同时，需要对冲时，用另外的反向操作，而且，不追求单一点位，而是平均在一个合理范围。。。所以，我一般是先给出一个范围的预先估计，等到了后，再实时撅腚，追求精准一些。。。譬如今天下午的1370，是到了一个重要阻力处，那我就减掉了大部分long，加了空，这样净仓位就变成了空。。。之后，根据实际情况决定如何加减。。。
外汇也类似，对冲对要选好。。。
商品类，看的时候多，不做短线，只做比较清楚的大波。。。